FROM MCDONALD'S TRIAD TO MODERN DIAGNOSTIC METHODS: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF APPROACHES TO EARLY ASSESSMENT OF CRIMINAL TENDENCIES IN MINORS

Abstract

The article presents a comparative analysis of the evolution of approaches to the early assessment of criminogenic propensity in juveniles, focusing on the transition from the classical Macdonald Triad to modern multidimensional diagnostic methods. The Macdonald Triad, which includes childhood animal cruelty, fire-setting, and enuresis, is examined as a historically influential but conceptually and empirically limited model whose predictive value for future violent or criminal behavior has been significantly overestimated. The study emphasizes the superiority of contemporary structured risk assessment instruments, such as SAVRY, YLS/CMI, and PCL:YV, which demonstrate higher predictive validity in assessing juvenile recidivism and violent behavior. These tools allow for a comprehensive evaluation of static and dynamic risk factors, as well as protective factors, thus overcoming the reductionist nature of traditional behavioral indicators. Particular attention is given to the role of psychological, social, and digital determinants in the formation of deviant behavior among minors. The article highlights the growing impact of the digital information environment, including exposure to violent and criminogenic content, as a significant factor shaping antisocial attitudes and behavioral patterns in adolescents. Based on an interdisciplinary analysis, the authors propose original markers for the early identification of criminogenic propensity, including a fearlessness syndrome, manipulative use of «mirror» empathy, and chronic sensation-seeking associated with digital hyperdeviance. The article concludes that an integrated, evidence-based, and multidimensional approach to risk assessment is essential for effective early intervention, prevention of juvenile delinquency, and reduction of long-term criminogenic persistence.